General Chat / 2016 in Film

It wasnt lame, pandering humor 

 

 

did i watch a different movie than the rest of you?

I think it's a little early to predict the total box office earnings of a very unusual film like this. I wouldn't be suprised to see a larger than average dropoff for this 2nd weekend. However it basically is going up against nothing for the next month so it very well could continue to do extremely well.

These movies are completely changing the idea of the summer blockbuster. Deadpool in February and Star Wars in December have proved that movies outside the summer months can do well. Which is good for the viewer because we don't have to pick and chose what to see during the saturated summer box office.

Okay, so I've done some calculating:

 

 

Box Office Mojo assumes, that Deadpool will drop off roughly 52% in its second weekend. Afterwards, I think the drops will generally be between 47% and 50%. So I calculated with 50% to get my "worst case". That brings the domestic weekends up to about $262m. X-Men Days of Future Past did 70% of its domestic run on weekends, that bring my estimate up to roughly $374m.

That would leave $326m to my estimate of $700m. While the ban in China will hurt the foreign Box Office, I think the movie can make the $170m left in the foreign markets to meet my estimate.

I think it's a little early to predict the total box office earnings of a very unusual film like this. I wouldn't be suprised to see a larger than average dropoff for this 2nd weekend. However it basically is going up against nothing for the next month so it very well could continue to do extremely well.

These movies are completely changing the idea of the summer blockbuster. Deadpool in February and Star Wars in December have proved that movies outside the summer months can do well. Which is good for the viewer because we don't have to pick and chose what to see during the saturated summer box office.

 

Deadpool already did extremely well. It did better on its opening weekend than many predicted for its entire run. Given its daily drops and the great word-of-mouth its receiving I'd be somewhat surprised by a bigger than average dropoff tbh.

 

The year-round blockbuster season is indeed something really great. Gives us movie fans something to look out for during the entire year instead of getting bored during the dump-months like September and January. Although December has always been like a short second blockbuster season together with Thanksgiving.

 

Box Office Mojo assumes, that Deadpool will drop off roughly 52% in its second weekend. Afterwards, I think the drops will generally be between 47% and 50%. So I calculated with 50% to get my "worst case". That brings the domestic weekends up to about $262m. X-Men Days of Future Past did 70% of its domestic run on weekends, that bring my estimate up to roughly $374m.

That would leave $326m to my estimate of $700m. While the ban in China will hurt the foreign Box Office, I think the movie can make the $170m left in the foreign markets to meet my estimate.

 

Box Office Mojo isn't what it used to be, though. But after this weekend we'll see where Deadpool is somewhat surely headed. If it drops 60% 300m will still be doable. If it manages to drop less than 50% we may be looking at a film that's getting over 350m. As I said; given its daily drops and the gread worth-of-mouth its receiving it could get a low drop of about 50%. The ban in China doesn't hurt the foreign BO, it's the only setback. It's doing exceptionally well in about every territory. 700m should be doable from now on but it's not a surefire thing.

I really is insane, thatt the box office insanity of 2016 begins already in February. I mean BvS will crush in March, X-Men and Civil War will make tons of money in May. The summer season is bonkers with a big movie opening every week.

 

While I don't think we will see a hit as big as The Force Awakens, we will have a shitload of $700m+ movies this year.

Will bvs crush? I dont know anyone whos excited for it... wouldnt be surprised to see a flop honestly

I mean it's the two most popular superheroes in one film. It will crush, and maybe you are just talking to the wrong people. I'm more exited about it than any other super hero film this year.

It's the two most popular superheroes for the first time in film, with Wonder Woman. But still, I don't think it'll take over the world. Most people probably don't care as much about the teamup as geeks do. Man of Steel didn't become really huge and that was with Nolan's name still on it. It won't flop, probably, but it doesn't scream blockbuster megahit.

I would be surprised if it didn't hit a billion.

Not saying it won't, but brace yourself. MOS did only 668m.

That's still more than any Marvel movie before The Avengers.

Wow I've never been less interested in a discussion. 

Wow I've never been less interested in a discussion. 

 

Not quite, but it hits my top 3.

Well, you know, you don't have to read it. Or comment on it, for that matter.

Wow I've never been less interested in a discussion. 

 

I mean this comment clearly shows that you are jealous and an elitist.

At least he's having fun and he looks like Lasse Schöne.

How about that new Captain America: Civil War trailer, boys? I will be in a constant state of fanboy-dom until May 6th.

I can't even handle it (dat Spiderman reveal tho). Gonna be a midnight showing for the girlfriend and me on Civil War.

It certainly will hype me after Batman V Superman. Right now only those two are on my mind, film wise.

I reckon the trailer would be better if it hadn't included Spidey. Although I admit that it was pretty cool to see Spidey with Cap's shield. Civil War looks like it will be good though. Russo brothers and their writers have done amazingly creative things with Captain America in the past and I'm very interested to see what they've come up with for the other characters. Ant-Man jumping through Iron Man's fingers. The Iron Man handpalm. It all looks very interesting.