H2H9 / Elo Ratings for H2H9 by saxman

  • saxman1089%s's Photo

    For this season, I'm bringing back my Elo ratings for each team!

    The initial rating for each team is established by looking at each team member's previous H2H performance, and averaging all of those ratings. While I would love to incorporate more individualized player ratings, this is just for fun and I don't have that much free time. The average team has a 1500 rating.

    This year's starting ratings are:
     

    Manual Laborers = 1503
    Logan's Run = 1503
    Adventurers Club = 1490
    Tile Inspectors = 1504
    Cereal Killers = 1503
    Scream Queens = 1504

    Teams are hovering right around average, which makes sense, since each team is a pretty good mix of past H2H performances. Adventurers Club tend to fall lower than other teams because their top picks are rookies and a few of their other picks are sourced from the H2H8 Icons. The team ratings will get more descriptive as we learn more information about this season.

    The Round 1 predictions are all basically a coin toss, but here are the numbers for those who are interested.
     
    Scream Queens with a 50.2% chance of winning over Logan's Run
    Cereal Killers and Manual Laborers in a dead tie
    Tile Inspectors with a 52% chance of winning over Adventurers Club

     

  • saxman1089%s's Photo

    Updated ratings after Round 1 are as follows:

     

    Manual Laborers = 1501 (-2 from starting rating)
    Logan's Run = 1502 (-1)
    Adventurers Club = 1491 (+1)
    Tile Inspectors = 1504 (+0)
    Cereal Killers = 1504 (+1)
    Scream Queens = 1505 (+1)

    As you can see, not much change this week, mostly because the ratings expected close matches in all three matches, and that's what happened!

    Because of this, predictions for Round 2 are all basically a coin toss as well. Here are the numbers for those who want them:

    Tile Inspectors with a 50.2% chance of winning over Logan's Run
    Scream Queens with a 50.1% chance of winning over Cereal Killers
    Manual Laborers with a 51.4% chance of winning over Adventurers Club
  • In:Cities%s's Photo

    last place baby lets get it

  • saxman1089%s's Photo

    Updated ratings after Round 2 are as follows:

     

    Manual Laborers = 1494 (-7 from Round 1)

    Logan's Run = 1517 (+15)

    Adventurers Club = 1499 (+8 )

    Tile Inspectors = 1489 (-15)

    Cereal Killers = 1510 (+6)

    Scream Queens = 1499 (-6)

    We had some movement this round due to the matches being a bit more one-sided than the ratings predicted. 

     

    Round 3 is looking like a few more toss-ups, because the ratings of the teams happen to be matched up pretty well:

     

    Logan's Run with a 50.9% chance of winning over Cereal Killers

    Manual Laborers with a 50.8% chance of winning over Tile Inspectors

    Scream Queens with a 50.1% chance of winning over Adventurers Club

  • saxman1089%s's Photo
    Updated ratings after Round 3 are as follows:
     
    Manual Laborers = 1509 (+15 from Round 2)
    Logan's Run = 1519 (+2)
    Adventurers Club = 1517 (+18)
    Tile Inspectors = 1474 (-15)
    Cereal Killers = 1507 (-3)
    Scream Queens = 1481 (-18)

    Like the last round, we had some big movement due to the two one-sided matches. Adventurers Club and Manual Laborers got a huge boost this week, whereas Scream Queens and Tile Inspectors continue to fall further behind in the ratings.
     
    Round 4 is looking eerily similar to Round 3, because the teams seem to be matched up pretty well again:

    Logan's Run with a 51.5% chance of winning over Manual Laborers (1519 vs. 1509)
    Scream Queens with a 51.0% chance of winning over Tile Inspectors (1481 vs. 1474)
    Adventurers Club with a 51.4% chance of winning over Cereal Killers (1517 vs. 1507)
     
    It will be interesting to see what the SQ vs. TI match reveals. With a close match, both teams will maintain their ratings, but with a blowout, either team could be ranked among the lowest H2H teams.
  • Liampie%s's Photo

    What happens when you use the fantasy match outcomes for the elo ratings? Would we see some more divergence in the numbers?

  • In:Cities%s's Photo
    AC boys with that glow up sonnnnn
  • saxman1089%s's Photo
    Updated ratings after Round 4 are as follows:
     
    Manual Laborers = 1512 (+3 from Round 3)
    Logan's Run = 1516 (-3)
    Adventurers Club = 1505 (-12)
    Tile Inspectors = 1485 (+11)
    Cereal Killers = 1520 (+13)
    Scream Queens = 1471 (-10)

    We had some more movement this round due to some more one-sided matches. Unfortunately, the TI's big win over the SQ squad has resulted in a pretty low rating for the SQ's. On the other end, the CK's win over AC has led to them having the highest rating. However, ML and LR are right behind!

    Next round, here's what the ratings predict.

    Logan's Run with a 56.5% chance over the Scream Queens.
    Cereal Killers with a 55.1% chance over the Tile Inspectors.
    Manual Laborers with a 50.9% chance over Adventurers Club.
  • saxman1089%s's Photo
    Updated ratings after Round 5 are as follows:
     
    Manual Laborers = 1491 (-20 from Round 4)
    Logan's Run = 1512 (-4)
    Adventurers Club = 1527 (+22)
    Tile Inspectors = 1507 (+22)
    Cereal Killers = 1504 (-16)
    Scream Queens = 1478 (+7)

    Had some movement again this round with some of the blowouts we had in the various matches. The ratings are somewhat aligned with the standings, in that the two last place teams have the lowest ratings, and the AC squad has the highest rating and is in first place overall (I think).

    Next round, here's what we have on tap:

    Logan's Run with a 51.5% chance of beating the Cereal Killers.
    Manual Laborers with a 52.0% chance of beating the Scream Queens.
    Adventurers Club with a 52.9% chance of beating the Tile Inspectors.

     

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